Global spending on artificial intelligence is expected to reach $166 billion in 2023 (with banking one of the largest contributors by industry at about 13%), rising to about $450 billion by 2027, according to a report by International Data Corp. (IDC), a provider of technology market intelligence and advisory services.
The ways in which generative AI will be used by banks is likely to hold some surprises, but it seems certain that the new technology will result in both an evolution and an expansion of AI’s role within the banking sector.
Notable changes due to the application of generative AI in banking are unlikely to be immediate. We expect banks will continue testing generative AI models, and investing heavily in them, for the next two years to five years, before scaling up deployment to customers and engaging in more transformative projects. Furthermore, the bulk of banks’ near-term use cases will likely focus on offering incremental innovation (i.e., small efficiency gains and other improvements across business units) and will be based on specific business needs. Finally, we expect employees will remain in an oversight role, known as human-in-the-loop (HITL), to ensure results meet expectations (in terms of accuracy, precision, and compliance) as the technology matures.
Despite that gradual onset, the potential for wide-ranging application of generative AI means the banking sector is among those likely to experience the biggest impact from the advancement. On an annual basis, generative AI could add between $200 billion and $340 billion in value (9%-15% of banks’ operating profits) if the use cases are fully implemented, according to a 2023 report by McKinsey & Co, a management consultant.
Apart from new business use cases, banks are also likely to apply generative AI (through foundation models) to existing and older AI applications, with the aim of improving their efficiency. For instance, the digitalization and automation of customer-facing processes generates a digital data trail that generative AI can use to fine-tune both the service and its internal processes. This could then deliver further digitalization, including hyper-scale customization, that might enable better client segmentation and retention. Digital data trails could also be used to improve risk management, data collection, reporting, and monitoring.
How banks go about developing their generative AI capabilities is likely to depend on their scale and investment capacity. Options range from outsourcing (via contracting to a third-party) to in-house development, and a wide range of hybrid solutions involving the fine-tuning of existing models. While most generative AI applications in banking remain at early stages of development, the spectrum of projects and approaches is already apparent (see table 2).
