As so often happens these days the headlines from major news outlets all look like they were written by the same people. All the major news outlets repeated the government talking point that immigration would be reduced significantly. In his news release, Immigration Minister Marc Miller spoke of “controlled targets” and even “marginal” declines in Canada’s population. Minister Miller made it sound like the feds are pulling way back on the number of immigrants being allowed into the country.
A few hours later, Premier Danielle Smith explained how Alberta sees things. According to Premier Smith, immigrants will still be pouring into the country at near record levels. Smith says this new immigration plan will offer almost no relief whatsoever to provinces buckling under the pressure of so many newcomers.
Premier Smith is right. When you take out all the adjectives and the self back-patting, the 2025 – 2027 Immigration Levels Plan shows the number of new immigrants will still hover near record levels.
From the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan.
The levels plan includes controlled targets for temporary residents, specifically international students and foreign workers, as well as for permanent residents.
We are:
- reducing from 500,000 permanent residents to 395,000 in 2025
- reducing from 500,000 permanent residents to 380,000 in 2026
- setting a target of 365,000 permanent residents in 2027
Quick facts:
- Canada’s population has grown in recent years, reaching 41 million in April 2024. Immigration accounted for almost 98% of this growth in 2023, 60% of which can be attributed to temporary residents.
- Francophone immigration will represent
- 8.5% in 2025
- 9.5% in 2026
- 10% in 2027
The Levels Plan also supports efforts to reduce temporary resident volumes to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2026. Canada’s temporary population will decrease over the next few years as significantly more temporary residents will transition to being permanent residents or leave Canada compared to new ones arriving. Specifically, compared to each previous year, we will see Canada’s temporary population decline by
- 445,901 in 2025
- 445,662 in 2026
- a modest increase of 17,439 in 2027
It’s interesting how the feds explain the situation with “temporary residents”. This group includes foreign students and temporary workers. Most Canadians would probably be shocked to know just how many people are “temporarily” here.
Minister Miller says this population will decline by 445,901 people in 2025. What he leaves out is that this still allows for just over 2,000,000 foreign students and temporary workers! (5% of 41,000,000 Canadians is 2,050,000)
It’s also very interesting that in the explanation for how the feds plan to cut the number of temporary residents down from about 2.6 million to just over 2 million, is by recognizing that many of the temporary residents will transition to being permanent residents. It’s not clear how that will reduce the number of people in the country. I guess we’ll have to see how that all turns out.
Meanwhile Alberta Premier Danelle Smith and Minister of Immigration and Multiculturalism Muhammad Yaseen issued this joint statement on today’s federal government immigration announcement:
“Alberta has a long history of welcoming newcomers, and we plan to maintain that reputation.
“However, the federal government’s reckless and irresponsible open-border immigration policies, permitting almost 2 million newcomers to enter Canada last year alone, have led to unsustainable financial pressures on all provinces.
“With the cost of food, energy, housing and everything else in this country increasing, and with tens of thousands of new people moving to Alberta monthly, our hospitals and schools are at or above capacity.
“As a province, we need a reprieve from this explosive population growth so we can catch up with these pressures. So do all provinces.
“The federal government’s plan to cut a mere 105,000 new permanent residents will not solve these pressures when they are bringing in almost 2 million additional people annually.
“We call on the government to cut the number of newcomers to Canada from almost 2 million to well under 500,000 annually until further notice.
“Ottawa’s priority should be on reducing the number of temporary foreign workers, international students and asylum seekers—not on reducing provincially selected economic migrants.”
