Australia
Wed: CPI (Q3), monthly CPI indicator (Oct)
Thu: Retail trade (Sep), Building approvals (Sep), Private sector credit (Sep), Trade prices (Q3)
Fri: CoreLogic home prices (Oct), New housing lending (Sep), Household spending indicator (Sep), Manufacturing PMI
International
Wed: US – GDP (Q3)
EU – GDP (Q3)
Thu: US – PCE inflation (Sep)
EU – CPI
CH – Manufacturing PMI
JP – BoJ rate decision
Fri: US – Non-farm payrolls, unemployment, wages (Oct), ISM manufacturing survey
Wednesday’s inflation figures will be the key numbers for local interest rate policy and the markets.
The CBA forecasts headline Consumer Price Index (Q3) will increase just 0.3% over the quarter, bringing the YoY number down to 2.9%.
However, the RBA’s less volatile preference for trimmed mean CPI is likely to be higher, 0.7% over the quarter and 3.4% YoY, still outside the RBA’s target 2-to-3% band.
The CBA argues this doesn’t derail its tip of a December rate cut, as the six-month annualised rate of core inflation should come in at 3%, still at the top of the target band, but falling.
“We have become increasingly confident that the inflation pulse has eased in Q3 24 due to positive signs from private sector surveys and the monthly CPI indicator,” the CBA team wrote over the weekend.
The more forward-looking CPI indicator for October drops at the same time as the quarterly CPI numbers and CBA view is it should slow further from the 2.7% YoY in September to 2.2%.
“Driving the decline in the annual rate are modest rents inflation from the increase in rental assistance from 20 September, a modest fall in electricity prices primarily for Victorian households, another monthly decline in fuel prices and a seasonal decline in pharmaceuticals,” the CBA said.
Retail trade (Sep) on Thursday is expected to slip a tad, primarily due to an earlier Fathers’ Day causing a payback this month, but nominal sales (excluding the impact of inflation) should be higher over the quarter.
Building approvals (Sep) are also out on Thursday are starting to edge up but are still well below the long-term average.
House prices (Oct) on CoreLogic’s data points to a slowing in price growth, with the weaker, larger markets in Melbourne and Sydney potentially dragging down the national figure into negative territory, although Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide are once again expected to show solid gains over the month.
Offshore and the key figures will be US jobs and inflation data.
Non-farm payrolls (Friday) may be considerably weaker (100,000 fewer jobs is the tip) than the stonking September numbers, blown off course by recent hurricanes and strikes.
The Fed’s preferred measure, core PCE inflation, is expected to be higher, but not alarmingly so and shouldn’t weaken the case for further rate cuts.
There are also some third quarter GDP numbers being printed, with the US (Wed) tipped to report a robust 3.1% increase YoY thanks to stronger household consumption, while across the Atlantic, Europe’s growth looks like coming in at a far more anaemic 0.8% YoY.
The Bank of Japan meets on Thursday and is likely to leave rates on hold.
